Essential Fourth-Quarter Stats for the Media and Tech Industries

Here’s a pithy, curated recap of what I saw happen in the quarter, and my predictions for 2021. All the insights below are from conversations I have had, podcasts I have listened to and articles I’ve read. It only makes my list if I believe it and I have heard it several times.

Overview 

• Longest year ever 
• Though, 2020, it could have been much worse
• Facebook, YouTube and Twitter are now media companies. They are publishers in addition to tech platforms and the referees of journalism.
• The pandemic has changed everything.
• The big get bigger and the small get wiped out.
• Post Covid-19, consumers have shifted from buying services and experiences to buying products. 
• Big breakthrough technology comes in two stages: Stage one is doing things better, and stage two is doing things we have never thought we could do before, like self-driving cars.
• Amazon is the sun—it feeds us and nurses us, but if you get too close it will incinerate you.
• Some career advice: Leave ad tech and get into health tech 
• I am starting a SPAC [special purpose acquisition company].
• Everyone is connected and no one is in charge.
• Right now it’s not illegal to be a monopoly, but it’s illegal to abuse your monopolistic power.
• A crisis is a horrible thing to waste.
• Google Search was one of the most important new technologies for improving human life. 
• The federal government is a monopoly that can’t go bankrupt and has horrible customer service.

Big tech

• Perhaps the tech companies have data on Covid and they know what’s going on but they’re afraid to share because then we will know how much data they really collect. 
• Instagram will test shopping functionality inside Reels, a new TikTok rival.
• Facebook, Amazon, Alphabet, Apple all have monopoly power.
• Google, Amazon or Apple get ahead of the curve and spin off a major asset in 2021.
• Facebook dominates the news media landscape and is largely unedited. 
• LinkedIn stories feels like a mismatch. Who cares?
• Is Google Chrome the second most valuable asset after Google Search?
• Facebook acquisition of Instagram in 2012 is one of the best acquisitions of all time
• Zero click search is an answer to a user’s question right at the top of the search engine results page so the user does not need any further information that would be gained by clicking the link—way too powerful 
• Personalized advertising is under assault as Apple readies a change that would limit the ability of Facebook and other companies to target ads 
• The Facebook algorithm is slowly ruining democracy.
• Facebook is pure algorithmic amplification.
• Now that Apple has launched its 5G phone, what is next for the iPhone? Folding, multidimensional two screens? 
• TikTok isn’t acting like a company that might be shut down in the U.S.
• TikTok is reportedly experimenting with longer-form, 3-minute videos.
• Facebook said that just 6% of content U.S. users see is political, though they didn’t say how the company defined political content or give a timeframe that the statistic applies to.
• Parler downloads soared as conservatives flock to the Twitter clone after the Biden win.
• Instagram cautiously considers paying publishers.
• Amazon pharmacy today—next we will see Amazon minute clinics inside of Whole Foods 
• Facebook employees say post-election changes to its algorithm should be made permanent
• Amazon, Google and now Facebook are pushing into cloud gaming, which could finally give advertisers a way into this market.

Streaming

• Disney is shifting its entertainment strategy to have streaming be its primary focus.
• Com­cast is in talks with Wal­mart to de­velop and dis­tribute smart TVs, as the ca­ble gi­ant looks to be­come a dom­i­nant hub for stream­ing apps, not just TV chan­nels.
• Nearly six months after the late-May launch of HBO Max, AT&T’S WarnerMedia and Amazon have finally come to a deal enabling the SVOD to be accessible on 40 million Amazon Fire TVs.
• The Queen’s Gambit is the biggest limited series yet on Netflix.
• Every movie should be cut into eight 30-minute segments and turned into a series
• Quibi died 
• Discovery+ will be DOA 
• Warner Bros. announced that all of its 2021 film slates will stream on HBO Max at the same time the films play in theaters.
• AT&T’s WarnerMedia is considering two new streaming services: one revolving around CNN, and the other based on TNT, TBS and Warner Bros. movies.
• Disney+ will be the same price as Netflix in a few years.
• Disney+ has 86.8 million subscribers as of Dec. 11, 2020.
• AMC, the world’s largest movie-theater company, said it may run out of cash by year’s end if it doesn’t raise more funds or get more people back to theaters.
• What will happen to the movie theater experience? 

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