GroupM Midyear Forecast Shows Marketers Are Spending More, Faster

Global advertising will grow 7.8% and reach $989.8 billion by the end of this year, according to WPP media investment firm GroupM’s This Year Next Year 2024 Global Midyear Forecast.

In 2025, the group expects growth to slow down to a 6.8% rate, but reach a new milestone when spending hits $1.1 trillion.

A more global economy is spurring the ad industry to grow faster than GroupM’s analysts previously thought it would. In an earlier forecast, they predicted ad spend would not pass the $1 trillion threshold until 2026. As channels like retail media expand rapidly, China-based companies like Temu and TikTok increased the market’s already significant influence on the industry.

Now, 22 of the top 25 advertising sellers are based in the U.S. or in China. And given the outsized importance of digital investment, which makes up the majority of advertising, media buyers are broadening their global reach by investing in online behemoths that can attract ad revenue from anywhere in the world.

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The global advertising ecosystem is more connected than ever before, the report suggests. As a result, election outcomes and regulatory changes could change forecasted outcomes, the analysts underscored.

“Really, the story of globalization is key here,” said Kate Scott-Dawkins, global president of Business Intelligence at GroupM. “Open financial markets, global supply chains [have] allowed Chinese companies to really expand globally, around the world. That’s happened, obviously, with things like TikTok and Temu, but also within U.S.-owned or other owned platforms.”

Globalization takes hold

As usual, U.S. marketers are spending more on advertising than those in any other market. U.S. ad spend is growing at a 5.8% rate, excluding political advertising. It should reach $365.9 billion this year, up from last year’s $345.9 billion, GroupM analysts predict.

China’s advertising market is growing much faster though. It is expected to grow at a rate of 14% this year, as ad spend in its market reaches $199.4 billion. Together, the U.S. and China markets represent 57.1% of global ad revenue.

Other emerging markets, like Brazil and India, are bumping global ad spend up, too. They are growing at 11.3% and 9.5% rates, respectively.

Marketers are consolidating more of their ad spend with the largest media sellers, commerce and technology giants. With more globalization, there is now more competition for supply, which is now available to advertisers around the world.

Political advertising to reach CTV

Political advertising will contribute significantly to this year’s advertising economy, with the U.S., Uruguay, Sri Lanka and other countries generating sizable portions of ad spend from political advertising. Government policies and regulation, coupled with legislative changes, stand to impact the industry’s long-term growth, too.

“In the world of media and advertising, we have to keep an eye on regulatory and consumer reaction to everything from advances in artificial intelligence to continued consolidation in the media space as we look to predict growth over the next five years,” the report’s authors wrote.

Political ad investment strategies are shifting, too. It used to benefit certain channels—those offering broad national reach, or hyper-local sellers across out-of-home (OOH), audio and local TV. That’s starting to change, analysts wrote.

Today’s fractured digital economy is complex, given that some political advertisers allocate spend to the likes of micro-influencers, who they deem capable of influencing voters. At the same time, newer channels like CTV are raking in greater portions of spend. By 2028, CTV channels will reap $2 billion in political advertising spend, according to the research.

Retail media balloons and out-of-home hits back

Retail media is growing quickly, by 17.5% this year and 13.5% next year, GroupM analysts predict. OOH advertising will also grow by 11.5% in 2024, bolstered by investment activity in China, which accounts for 54.6% of all digital OOH investments.

“The ability to offer digital marketplaces and build your supply chains overseas [is] helping companies like Amazon, helping companies like Walmart,” Scott-Dawkins said. This year, Walmart moved into the group’s top 25 list of media sellers, in 24th place—and that’s excluding Vizeo revenue, which Walmart aims to acquire pending antitrust litigation.

Digital is still growing and expected to make up 70.6%, or $699 billion, of total global ad spend. Google, Meta, ByteDance, Amazon and Alibaba comprised 77.7% of total global ad spend last year, compared to 65% in 2016.