“Netflix effect” is back as studios license old shows to competitors again

Some of Netflix’s competitors are reversing a streaming war tactic by licensing their old TV shows and movies to the streamer—boosting its programming offerings but also potentially squeezing its profit margins, analysts say.

Netflix relied heavily on programming that it licensed from other companies when it launched its streaming service in 2007. But after Walt Disney, NBCUniversal, Paramount and the then-Time Warner launched their own streaming services, they pulled many of their shows from Netflix to avoid feeding a company that had grown into an arch-competitor.

With legacy media groups under pressure to produce streaming profits, however, licensing revenue is looking attractive again—even if it comes from Netflix. This summer, Warner Bros Discovery’s HBO network began licensing a handful of older shows to Netflix, including Insecure, Six Feet Under, Ballers, and Band of Brothers.

“Conventional wisdom of the last 10 years was that you keep everything in house,” said Casey Bloys, HBO’s chief executive, at the recent Code conference. “But in the history of television, syndication—selling a show somewhere else—was the brass ring. It meant the show was successful and would have a life elsewhere.”

Analysts at Morgan Stanley said the return of licensing deals was a “long-term positive” for Netflix and would “pad” its lead over competitors in streaming. But the bank added that the cost of licensing—along with Netflix’s investments in gaming and other sectors—could add pressure to its profit margins in 2024. The analysts raised their outlook for Netflix’s overall cash spending next year by $500 million to $17.7 billion.

Netflix will report results on Wednesday, with investors expected to focus on whether it plans to increase subscription prices and signs of progress on its new advertising tier. The latest data on its password sharing crackdown will also be watched.

The return of licensing deals has coincided with strikes in Hollywood, which halted production of new shows and are expected to delay TV and movie releases well into next year. The Writers Guild of America reached a deal with the studios in September after five months, but the SAG-AFTRA union representing actors is still on strike. Those talks collapsed last week after the union asked for a share of subscriber revenue from streamers, studio officials say.

Despite the gloom around the strikes, the studios’ experiments with licensing deals appear to have given some old shows new life. After NBCUniversal licensed its show Suits—which aired from 2011-19 and starred Meghan Markle—to Netflix in June, the show experienced a revival. The legal drama was in the top spot on the Nielsen Streaming top 10 for three months, an example of the “Netflix effect” on older shows.

Bloys said licensing shows to Netflix had also boosted traffic for the programs on Warner Discovery’s Max streaming platform, home to HBO programming including Ballers, a sports drama that ran from 2015-19. Ballers entered the Nielsen top 10 after it went to Netflix, and Insecure, a comedy starring Issa Rae that ran from 2016-21, had a similar boost.

“Without doing a thing on Max, the engagement on Ballers and Insecure really saw a spike when they were on Netflix,” he said at the Code conference. “The initial experiment we had with a couple of titles has had an immediate positive impact on Max.”

There are limits, Bloys added, naming two popular HBO shows that may remain off-limits on Netflix. “I doubt you’ll see Succession or White Lotus, he said.

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