What the latest strike on Syria succeeded at (and what it didn’t)

On April 13, the United States, France, and the United Kingdom launched the largest barrage of cruise missiles since the opening of the Gulf War. One hundred and five cruise missiles launched from sea and air struck three alleged chemical weapons facilities in Syria. The majority of the US military’s strike package—75 cruise missiles—targeted a cluster of three buildings on the outskirts of Damascus, in the midst of Syria’s greatest concentration of air defenses.

But while President Donald Trump was quick to tweet “MISSION ACCOMPLISHED,” US military officials have already acknowledged that the strikes did little to blunt Syria’s capacity to manufacture and deliver chemical weapons. The mission was a compromise from the start, targeting facilities that would result in the lowest possible probability of loss of civilian life. And the US warned Russia in advance using the deconfliction line between the US and Russian militaries that there would be an operation over Syria, tipping off Russia and Syria of the strike Trump had already promised was coming.

The strike did accomplish a few things besides blowing up (apparently empty) buildings. It demonstrated how the US, French, and British militaries are capable of orchestrating a joint strike operation on (relatively) short notice, as well as the effectiveness of two relatively new weapons systems. It also demonstrated how some of the oldest weapons systems in the US military’s inventory can still serve a role in these sorts of operations. And the strike gave nearly everyone but the US Army and US Coast Guard an opportunity to take part.

In other words, the attack was a very expensive, short lead time exercise that demonstrated to Syria and Russia what the US and its allies could do if they really meant business.

The order of battle

The US Navy fired 66 Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles (TLAMs) as part of the strike. The TLAM, built by Raytheon, is the most battle-tested cruise missile in use by any military; so far the US Navy has fired more than 2,000 of them in anger since the opening of the Gulf War in 1990.

From the Red Sea, the Ticonderoga-class cruiser USS Monterey (CG-61) launched 30 TLAMs, and the Arleigh Burke-class destroyer USS Laboon (DDG-58) launched seven TLAMs. In the Arabian Gulf, the Burke-class USS Higgins (DDG-76) launched 23 Tomahawks. And the remaining six were fired by the Virginia-class attack submarine USS John Warner (SSN-785) from the Eastern Mediterranean Sea.

But the Navy wasn’t the only US participant in the strike. Two B-1B Lancer bombers launched 19 AGM-158 Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSMs). This was the first combat use of the JASSM, which initially entered service in 2009; an extended-range version (with a reach of 500 nautical miles) was brought into service in 2014. The JASSM is designed to be more stealthy than the Tomahawk, so, in theory, it has a higher probability of penetrating advanced air defenses like those Russia has deployed around its bases in Syria.

Because the B-1Bs launched their weapons outside of Syrian airspace, they didn’t require fighter cover. The only escort they had, according to the Pentagon, was a single Marine Corps EA-6B Prowler electronic warfare aircraft, which may have provided some radar-jamming cover for the launch of the JASSMs. The EA-6B, retired by the Navy, has been in service since the 1960s.

In addition to the strike missions, there were F/A-18s on combat air patrol to be on guard for retributive strikes, and refueling tankers were ready to support the US and allied aircraft in the strike. The exact number of aircraft involved overall was not revealed by the Pentagon.

The JASSM wasn’t the only relatively new weapon brought to this one-sided shooting match. UK and French forces launched air and ship-based versions of a jointly developed cruise missile, which the British poetically call the Storm Shadow and French call the Système de Croisière Autonome à Longue Portée (Long Range Standoff Cruise Missile), or SCALP. Initially developed as an air-launched weapon by the European defense company MBDA Systems, SCALP/Storm Shadow has been deployed since 2002; it has since been modified into a Naval Cruise Missile (Missile de Croisière Naval) for the French, first deployed in 2015.

Since the SCALP has a range of more than 300 nautical miles, British and French forces were able to launch their part of the attack well offshore from Syria. The Royal Air Force launched eight Storm Shadow missiles from Tornado and Typhoon fighters; nine SCALP missiles were fired from Rafale and Mirage fighters of the French Air Force. And the French Navy’s FREMM frigate Languedoc (D-653) fired three Naval Cruise Missiles from the Eastern Mediterranean.

This is the first time the British have fired the Storm Shadow in combat, though the British have provided the missile to the Saudis for use in Yemen. The French had previously only used the SCALP in combat against ISIS targets in December 2015 and January 2016, following ISIS terrorist attacks in Paris.

What got hit

The US attack focused heavily on the Barzah Research and Development Center in Damascus, a three-building complex that Department of Defense officials claimed was involved in chemical-weapons research. An Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons report from March found no evidence of chemical-weapons research, development, or production at the facility. But that did not deter the US from firing 75 missiles at the complex: 57 of the 66 TLAMs and all 19 JASSMs.

The reason for the overwhelming attack on the site was that Damascus is among the most heavily defended bits of airspace in the world. With all of the missiles launched to strike with the same “time on target,” the number of incoming missiles was intended to overwhelm Syrian air defenses. None of the missiles was intercepted; in fact, Syrian defenders didn’t launch any anti-aircraft missiles until after all 105 missiles had detonated on their targets, according to DOD officials. As a result, satellite photos showed that the Barzah facility was completely turned into rubble.

British and French strikes, along with the nine remaining TLAMs, were focused on what the allies claim was a chemical weapons storage facility and a chemical warfare operations bunker at Him Shinshar, west of the Syrian city of Homs. A total of 22 missiles—the nine remaining TLAMs, the RAF’s eight Storm Shadow missiles, three French Naval Cruise Missiles, and two SCALP missiles, struck the alleged weapons storage facility. The remaining seven SCALP missiles hit the bunker.

Syria and Russia claimed after the attack that 71 of the missiles were intercepted by air defenses. But according to the Pentagon, Syria launched about 40 air-defense missiles after the strike had been completed without any guidance. And while Russian forces’ S-400 Triumf anti-aircraft missile systems had their radars active, they failed to lock onto any targets or launch any missiles of their own, despite (or because of) US forewarnings of the attack.

What’s the damage?

President Trump hailed the strike as successfully meeting its objectives via Twitter. Pentagon officials were more circumspect in their analysis, saying that the strike achieved “a long term degradation” of Syria’s capability to develop and deploy chemical weapons.

Israeli intelligence officials, however, were quoted as saying the strikes did little if anything.

According to Ynet News, one senior official said:

If President Trump had ordered the strike only to show that the US responded to Assad’s use of chemical weapons, then that goal has been achieved. But if there was another objective—such as paralyzing the ability to launch chemical weapons or deterring Assad from using [them] again—it’s doubtful any of these objectives have been met.

Which raises the question: if the strike really did meet Trump’s metrics for “Mission Accomplished,” what exactly was the mission to begin with?

Listing image by US Department of Defense

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