As marketers prepare for the crucial holiday sales season, they’re facing higher prices and potential shipping delays due to a string of U.S. tariffs and the removal of the de minimis import rule.
Still, consumers are poised to spend $253.4 billion on U.S. ecommerce purchases this holiday season, according to Adobe—representing a 5.3% year-over-year increase. Notably, that growth is smaller than the 8.4% year-over-year increase that Adobe forecasted last year.
Adobe’s figures look at expected ecommerce sales between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31, 2025. The company analyzed more than 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sales and 100 million SKUs (or individual products) across 18 product categories.
Cyber Week—the five days between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday—is expected to generate $43.7 billion, representing 17.2% of all holiday spend this year and a 6.3% year-over-year increase, according to Adobe.
Robo-shopping
Generative AI is expected to play a bigger role in how people research and shop this year.
Adobe expects AI traffic during the holidays to increase 520% year-over-year. However, it did not provide more granular AI traffic numbers, highlighting how new the technology is for shoppers. Adobe tracked the first significant increase in AI traffic to U.S. retail sites in 2024, spiking 1,300% year-over-year.
A separate study conducted by Adobe with 5,000 U.S. consumers found that more than one-third of respondents have used an AI service to shop online. More than half (53%) of respondents said that they’ve used AI to research while shopping, while another 40% use it for product recommendations, and 36% use it to find deals.
Creators are also expected to play a bigger role in holiday spending this year. Traffic from social media to U.S. retail sites is forecast to grow by 51% year-over-year, according to Adobe. Specifically, traffic from affiliates and third-party partners is expected to increase 14% year-over-year.
Cash-strapped consumers
As inflation holds steady, shoppers will continue to seek out deep discounts this year, according to Adobe.
However, retailers’ prices are not expected to drop more than previous years. Adobe expects retailers to cut prices by 28% during the holiday season to lure in shoppers—equivalent to discounts offered in 2024.