If Oracle secures the deal, it could gain a foothold in the booming ecommerce space while reshaping its identity beyond enterprise software.

But a misstep in managing TikTok’s delicate balance of advertisers, creators, and users could erode the app’s relevance—turning a promising acquisition into an expensive miscalculation.

“Social media market is fleeting and you need to always be in the zeitgeist,” Arslanian said. “Entrenched incumbents like Oracle, or even Amazon, aren’t naturally positioned to acquire and successfully operate TikTok, which thrives on fast-evolving content.”