But there are other, salient timelines to consider here.
Nexstar is in the midst of a merger that requires FCC approval. That merger, announced in August, would see Nexstar acquire Tegna, another local TV operator, for $6.2 billion.
Critically, an FCC rule prevents any affiliate network from owning more than 39% of the market. With this merger, Nexstar may vastly exceed the limit, entering 80% of U.S. households. For the merger to clear then, the FCC would have to rewrite its rules to change this cap.
While Nexstar has not acknowledged this dynamic, it made the decision to preempt Kimmel hours after FCC chair Brendan Carr suggested on a podcast that licensed broadcasters should do so in light of the comments Kimmel made on his show about Charlie Kirk.
It just so happens that Nexstar is due to submit the relevant filings for this merger to the FCC by the end of September. Given the delicacy of the situation, Nexstar might be uninterested in bringing Kimmel back on air while the FCC evaluates its bid.
Are there still more concessions to be made, from Nexstar, Sinclair, or Disney?
The analysts I spoke to are split as to which party has the upper hand here. But one thing is clear: Disney has made the concessions it understood to be necessary, but Sinclair and Nexstar have not yielded.
That introduces the question, as analyst Michael Rosen put it: What do they want? On that front, there are several potential explanations.
Disney, which still has a sizable linear business, is reliant on viewership from its affiliates to meet advertising commitments. The longer it’s without Nexstar’s and Sinclair’s audiences, the greater the likelihood becomes that it will have to issue make-goods to compensate for the depressed viewership.
As mentioned above, Nexstar wants its deal with Tegna to be approved by the FCC. Mostly, that means staying in the good graces of the agency, according to media analyst Peter Naylor.
At Skydance Paramount, another media company whose recent merger also required FCC approval, the company made—and continues to make—a number of changes designed to bring more conservative sensibilities into the organization. In recent months, it has pursued an acquisition of the conservative outlet The Free Press, appointed conservative think-tanker Kenneth R. Weinstein as ombudsman, and announced plans to sunset The Late Show With Stephen Colbert.
Perhaps Sinclair and Nexstar, in alignment with the FCC, could squeeze Disney to implement similar measures to bring more political parity to its content? Or, more prosaically, the networks might simply use this opportunity to push for lower retransmission fees. Never let a good crisis go to waste!
How will this standoff affect the blockbuster deals these companies are in the midst of?
Nexstar is not the only company involved with a deal on the line.
Disney has two separate deals of its own, both of which will be subject to governmental approval to some degree.
In August, ESPN announced an equity deal with the NFL, through which the league would take a 10% stake in ESPN in exchange for ESPN taking ownership of the NFL Network and its RedZone Channel, among other media assets.
