In just the last month, both the European and Chinese space agencies have issued a call for private companies to develop the capability to deliver cargo to space stations in low-Earth orbit.

On May 11, the European Space Agency announced a “Commercial Cargo Transportation Initiative” that would see one or more providers develop the capability to deliver 2 metric tons to the International Space Station by 2028 and be capable of safely returning 1 ton to Earth. Each proposing company must procure its own rocket for a demonstration mission.

Less than a week later, on May 16, the China Manned Space Engineering Office announced a “Low-cost Cargo Transportation System” plan to hire private companies to deliver cargo to its Tiangong space station. Eligible providers must be capable of delivering at least 1.8 tons to low-Earth orbit. The Chinese spacecraft do not need to return cargo but should be able to dispose of 2 metric tons. The Chinese space agency said it would pay no more than $17.2 million per ton of cargo delivered.

These are significant initiatives because they represent an acknowledgement from two very different, large space agencies that NASA’s approach to commercial space over the last two decades has been successful in stimulating a new space industry. However, each of these initiatives may ultimately struggle.

What NASA did

In 2005, under the leadership of Administrator Mike Griffin, NASA said it would use private companies to deliver cargo to the International Space Station after the Space Shuttle’s retirement. During the initial phase of this program—formally called Commercial Orbital Transportation Services, or COTS—NASA supported SpaceX with a total of $396 million in developmental funding, and Orbital Sciences with $288 million.

During this initial phase of the program, a small team of NASA engineers worked with SpaceX and Orbital Sciences, providing technical advice and other support. At the same time, the NASA officials were careful to let the companies innovate and design their own vehicles.

The program was mutually beneficial. At the end of the development program NASA had two vehicles, SpaceX’s Cargo Dragon and Orbital’s Cygnus, capable of delivering cargo to the space station for a fraction of the price it would have paid using a traditional contracting method. And in turn, the NASA funding allowed the US commercial space industry to leap ahead.

“We would not be the company that we are today without the support of NASA,” said SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell, in NASA’s official report on the COTS program in 2014. “We’d probably be limping along, trying to change the world, but limping instead of running.”

Following this developmental program, both SpaceX and Orbital Sciences moved into the operational phase of the program, known as Commercial Resupply Services. In this phase, NASA bought supply missions from the companies. On Monday, for example, SpaceX successfully launched its 28th supply mission to the space station.

Reasons for concern

So why can’t Europe and China replicate this success? They can, of course. But there are some potential pitfalls.

Foremost among those concerns is that both the European Space Agency and China’s space agency seem to be skipping the “COTS” phase of the program, during which NASA shared its expertise and provided a substantial amount of money.

By contrast, for the initial phase of its program, the European Space Agency is putting up a total of 2 million euro to support two companies with preliminary design and fundraising efforts. (See a list of potential bidders.) The benefit of this is clear: It allows ESA to start a commercial cargo program long before its next “ministerial” meeting in 2025, when it can ask member nations for more significant funding to support the cargo initiative.

But there is a serious downside, as well. While there may be more funding in the second round, the European Space Agency is counting on private companies to raise money, develop test articles, and procure a launch independently for a 2028 demonstration mission now. This will easily cost hundreds of millions of dollars—all for a chance to compete for future cargo supply contracts.

This seems like a really steep hill for European companies to climb. Certainly, no company is likely to be ready by 2028. The European Space Agency seemingly recognizes this, as it is telling companies it would like cargo delivery services for the International Space Station or private stations that will come later.

Be patient

There is less information about the Chinese plan, but the country appears to be paying providers by the ton. Although there undoubtedly will be technology transfers and other assistance from the Chinese government to its private companies, the amount of funding proposed, $17 million per ton, seems woefully inadequate for the service being asked. Developing, testing, and flying cargo spacecraft is both difficult and expensive.

For example, in its initial services contract with SpaceX, NASA paid $133 million per mission to fly a couple of tons of cargo to the International Space Station. That contract was awarded at the end of 2008. Factoring in inflation, the award value today would be about $190 million. China, therefore, is proposing to pay its providers less than one-fifth the value of what NASA paid SpaceX—and potentially without a COTS-like precursor program.

NASA’s commercial cargo program was ultimately successful because it picked good companies, invested substantially from the beginning, and was able to provide technical expertise when needed. Even so, from the time of the announcement of the COTS program, it took nearly seven years until the first supply ship docked at the space station.

Hopefully planners in Europe and China are as patient.

https://arstechnica.com/?p=1944517