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The last upfront season resulted in long negotiations with significant rollbacks outside of sports, and buyers wouldn’t be surprised by a little déjà vu this time around.
The days of skyrocketing linear CPMs (cost per thousand viewers reached) amid declining ratings, fall schedules dictating dollars and early market movers are likely long gone. In this new TV landscape, consumers and spending are moving to streaming, sports are becoming increasingly coveted and deals are becoming more complex than ever.
With TV upfront week looming, ADWEEK spoke with several prominent media buyers and insiders to better understand it all, learning the storylines to look out for in this year’s upfront negotiations.
CPMs staying soft
Deals vary across the board, but outside of sports, last year’s CPMs generally saw rollbacks of around 5%, and buyers expect more of the same for the 2024-2025 market.
“I see no reason why it’s not a similar marketplace to last year,” one buyer said, speaking anonymously. “It’s still early, but if the marketplace were to move tomorrow, in some areas it might be even softer.”
Streaming platforms, which entered the market with sky-high CPMs, are set to come crashing down to Earth, according to buyers, with more inventory flooding the industry thanks to recent ad tier launches and more money moving out of the upfront amid macroeconomic conditions and buyers wanting more flexibility and programmatic ad buys.
“Clients have had a volatile business climate for a number of years post-Covid,” a second buyer said. “There’s a very judicious thought around what dollars are going into the upfront and what are not.”
A large portion of the new supply keeping CPMs lower comes from Amazon’s Prime Video ad tier, which rolled out in January with an audience of more than 100 million. Media buyers are also looking to the streamer as a preferred partner to work with.
“If I’m the other streamers, or if I’m even the traditional guys around primetime, I’m looking over my shoulder at Amazon right now,” a third buyer said.
Meanwhile, streamers that are already lower on CPMs are well-positioned to capitalize. For instance, in Fox’s earnings call on Wednesday, Lachlan Murdoch, chairman and CEO of Fox Corporation, said he was “confident” that Fox AVOD Tubi would hold its CPMs, which are “already very efficient.”